Nogger's Blog

28/07/11 -- The EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit (MARS) has increased it's EU soft wheat yield forecast "due to the beneficial grain filling phase in Germany, France and United Kingdom and higher yield forecasts as previously for Romania and Poland."

Despite a lower planted area this year EU total wheat production will almost match last season at 137.03 MMT they say, which is 5.53 MMT more than the USDA's current estimate.

Barley output will total 54.15 MMT they forecast, just over 2 MMT more than the USDA. Corn production will total 61.21 MMT, again a little over 2 MMT more than predicted by the USDA.

Add that little lot together and we're set to have almost 10 MMT more grain swilling around in the EU system this season than our chum(p)s across the pond currently predict.

In an incredibly detailed report (you can download it here although it takes thirty seconds or so) they estimate UK soft wheat yields at 7.74 MT/ha, French yields at 6.57 MT/ha and German yields at 7.52 MT/ha.

On an acreage of around 2 million here in the UK that would imply a crop of around 15.5 MMT, more than a million tonnes up on last year.

Out of interest the highest yields in Europe are seen coming from our rain-sodden Irish brethren who will be blessed with an impressive 9.16 MT/ha this year, they say.

Barley yields are seen averaging 5.7 MT/ha in the UK, 5.76 MT/ha in France and 6.09 MT/ha in Germany.

Also of note is they highlight substantially better wheat and barley yields out of habitual importers Morocco and Tunisia this year. Moroccan wheat yields are up 20% on last season and +30% on the five year average, with barley yields up 11% and 41% respectively.

Tunisian wheat yields are seen up 68% on last year and +26% on average, with barley yields increasing by a whopping 235% on last year and +40% on average.

Oh, and by the way, it's on America's tortured brow that Mickey Mouse has grown up a cow.