The Early Vibe
26/08/11 -- There's not much going on with the overnight Globex market as everybody hangs on Bernanke's speech this afternoon.
Meanwhile the governors of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey and New York have all declared states of emergency as hurricane Irene becomes the first hurricane to seriously threaten the United States in three years this weekend.
The IGC yesterday increased its world wheat production estimate for 2011/12 by 3 MMT to 677 MMT, raised consumption by 2 MMT, upping carryout by 1 MMT to 191 MMT. The latter is now only 6 MMT short of what we were told were burdensome stocks of 197 MMT back in 2009/10.
World corn production was dropped 10 MMT to 849 MMT, with 5 MMT knocked off consumption cutting carryout to 118 MMT.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry says it is to ask the government to lift the existing duties on grain exports. Current legislation of a 9% tax on wheat exports (with a minimum of EUR17/tonne) and 14% on barley exports (min EUR23/tonne) means that the country only exported 300,000 MT of grains in July whilst neighbouring Russia shifted a record 2 MMT during the same period.
The Russian Grain Union says that the country could be a corn exporter this year.
Agritel say that the German rapeseed crop could fall below 4 MMT this year. Normally Europe's largest producer with an output of 5.75 MMT in 2010, that would see them slip into second place behind France.
The ProFarmer crop tour pegs the Iowa corn yield at 164.6bpa, 3% down on last year. The Minnesota corn yield is seen 5% lower at 175.9bpa.
The Washington Post reports that Germany's AAA credit rating may be at risk of a downgrade here as the European debt crisis stumbles on.
