Nogger's Blog

08/09/11 -- The overnight trade ended mostly lower with wheat down 3-5 cents, corn 2-3 cents easier and beans falling 5-8 cents in the most active months. Crude is a little higher as too is the dollar.

Fresh news is once again hard to come by as the trade awaits Monday's USDA reports.

Given yesterday's bullish sub-12 billion bushels production estimate from Cropcast, corn put in a pretty poor show to close in negative territory last night. It has also slipped away into the red this morning along with wheat and beans.

Some reports of early harvested corn suggest better than expected yields, which is maybe going to keep the heavily long bulls a bit nervous going into Monday's reports.

Other reports suggest sharply higher corn plantings in Brazil and Argentina due to the high levels of profitability current levels present.

South Korea has bought 161,900 MT of US corn overnight.

US wheat wasn't even offered in yesterday's Egyptian tender in which Kazakhstan emerged as a new competitor for Russia.

USDA weekly export sales are only out tomorrow due to the Labour Day holiday on Monday.

I'd expect to see some modest profit-taking today which may continue tomorrow, especially if the export sales disappoint, as I think they might. There are some rain possibilities in the forecast for the southern Plains ahead of winter wheat planting.

There are also various differences of opinion as to what track the next wave of tropical storms brewing up in the Gulf of Mexico will take.

Obama will address a joint session of Congress tonight and before that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak to the Minnesota Economic Club in Minneapolis.

There are maybe enough uncertainties there to encourage some money being taken off the table. Early calls: corn down 2-3 cents, wheat down 3-5 cents and beans down 5-7 cents.