Morning Vibe

01/09/11 -- White rabbits, white rabbits, white rabbits. It's a beautiful morning in North Yorkshire. The birds are singing. The squirrels are gathering nuts, and the wretched kids have only got one day of the school holidays left to go. Woooohoooo.

The overnight grains are lower. London and Paris wheat have opened easier, although they are really only back to where they were yesterday morning after somehow managing to officially close higher.

Fresh news is extremely thin on the ground. FC Stone are out later today I understand with their thoughts on US corn and soybean yields, and Informa are out tomorrow.

Before that the market will also be looking at the latest USDA weekly export sales this afternoon to see if there's any sign of demand slipping with prices where they are.

The HGCA sees the UK wheat harvest 75% done, whilst spring barley is 55% complete. The winter barley and rapeseed harvests are finished. In Scotland the harvest is later and slower than average. Just like the Scottish midfield.

The Kazakh harvest is around 15% done, according to the Ag Ministry there. Grain production there should be up 60% after near ideal spring and summer growing conditions.

Having issued us with harvest data on an almost daily basis throughout July and August the Russian Ministry seem to have gone very quiet this week. Maybe they are on holiday, or maybe they don't want to publicise too highly how things are going in Siberia (which in Russian terms is "just over the road" from Kazakhstan). I suspect that the answer to that is "pretty bloody well actually, comrade".

The Russian harvest may be larger than the market thinks. The only problem that they will have is shipping it out fast enough. The fact that world wheat prices have moved up since the beginning of August will delight them.