Ukraine Export Duties

01/09/11 -- Ukraine is unlikely to lift it's existing grain export duties in the near-term it is being suggested on the HGCA website amongst others this morning. To do so would contravene agreements that the country has with the IMF, according to the Ministry of Finance. (As if Ukraine normally has a problem contravening anything).

The duties will "remain in place until the end of 2011" the Minister of Agrarian Policy suggests.

If so, that will probably depress domestic prices, much as last year's export embargo did in Russia. It may also mean that Ukraine will try and squeeze a years worth of exports into the first half of 2012, making them ultra-aggressive when the time comes.

It could also give Russia and Kazakhstan grain an additional route out into the Med and beyond via Ukraine ports, and provide Ukraine customs officials with some useful "backhanders" in the run-up to Christmas!