Nogger's Blog

19/10/11 -- Soybeans: Nov 11 Soybeans closed at USD12.25, down 25 3/4 cents; Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.31 1/4, down 25 cents; Dec 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD319.30, down USD5.00; Dec 11 Soybean Oil closed at 51.48, down 122 points. It was another bout of risk aversion that saw beans post significant losses. The lack of cohesion coming out of France and Germany as we head towards crucial weekend talks to halt the Eurozone credit crisis sparked another rush to the exit door with funds selling an estimated 11,000 soybean contracts on the day. Talk of China cancelling soybean cargoes didn't help either, nor were there any sales to the Far East under the daily reporting system. Trade estimates range from 850 thousand MT to 1 MMT

Corn: Dec 11 Corn closed at USD6.38 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents; Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.48 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents. Funds sold an estimated 8,000 lots on the day on worries that this weekend's meeting of EU financial leaders may prove to be just another false dawn. Unlike soybeans though corn has more of a supply/demand story to rely on, with tomorrow's weekly export sales report from the USDA forecast to be the largest for corn since early 2008 at 2-2.5 MMT, including last week's sales of 900,000 MT to China. Farmer selling remains light with the US harvest only halfway done so far. Ukraine finally lifted it's export duties on corn sales.

Wheat: Dec 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.19 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.05 1/2, down 6 cents; Dec 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.11 1/2, up 5 cents. Minneapolis continues to lead, widening the gap between it and Chicago wheat to almost USD3.00/bushel. News that Ukraine's President finally signed the bill to lift export taxes on wheat and corn is bearish, as too is their stated intent to ship 27 MMT of grains in 2011/12. Dry weather has returned to the US Plains, slowing winter wheat planting progress. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report from the USDA range from 450 to 600 thousand MT.