EU Wheat Ends Mixed - Ukraine Finally Lifts Export Duties
19/10/11 -- EU grains ended mixed with Nov London wheat up GBP0.70/tonne to GBP147.40/tonne and Nov Paris wheat climbing EUR0.25/tonne to EUR186.00/tonne.Fresh news was difficult to come by for most of the day. Ukraine's Ag Minister raised his forecast for 2011/12 grain exports by 2 MMT to 27 MMT - a level if achieved that would almost certainly put the efforts even of neighbouring Russia's into the shade for the current season.
Added to the potential of Russia and Kazakhstan that would give us something approaching 65 MMT of grain coming out of the three FSU nations during the current marketing year - over than 10 MMT more than the USDA currently project.
In breaking news late in the day (probably too late for the market to react), Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych finally ratified a proposal agreed in parliament almost a fortnight ago to remove the export duty on wheat and corn.
That could well open the Black Sea floodgates a whole lot wider now, as Ukraine have exported less than 4 MMT in the period Jul 1st - Oct 17th as sellers sat on their hands waiting for this precise moment.
In other news, timely rains appear to have rescued wheat crops in SE Australia, which when added to the potentially bumper crops in Western Australia state, mean we could be in for a record production year this season.
It's already been widely reported that they were likely to have a record volume of wheat for sale Down Under in 2012 given the large (low grade) carryover still in storage from the last harvest. It now looks like there's the possibility of Australian growers bringing in the largest wheat crop in their history to add to those stockpiles.
