Nogger's Blog

07/10/11 -- The overnight grains finished lower with wheat down 7-9 cents, corn down 8-9 cents and beans 10-12 cents weaker.

After the Globex market closed news came out that the US economy added 103,000 jobs in September, better than expectations, which may add some support to grains this afternoon.

What won't add support however is the news that the Ukraine parliament has voted to end the export duty on wheat and corn with immediate effect. They will now be in a position to compete aggressively with Russia and Kazakhstan, and are likely to ramp up sales and exports quicker than you can say George Gershwin to make up for lost time having largely sat out of the first three months of the marketing year.

You will recall that Ukraine wheat undercut Russia in last week's Egyptian tender even with the export duty (9% with a minimum of EUR17.00/tonne) in place.

The USDA have reported 106,000 MT of soybeans sold to China under the daily reporting system.

The weather remains conducive for harvesting in many parts of the Midwest whilst hard red winter wheat is expecting "very heavy rain from recurring showers tomorrow and Saturday, 3-4 inches in portions of Oklahoma and Kansas," say Martell Crop Projections.

If they arrive these should be very beneficial for newly planted winter wheat and also encourage an increase in planting progress which has lagged as farmers have sat on their hands awaiting their arrival.

Wheat and corn are higher on the week so far, with beans weaker. All three are expected to open in negative territory this afternoon ahead of the weekend, with early calls: corn down 6-8 cents, wheat down 7-9 cents, beans down 10-12 cents.