Nogger's Blog

09/11/11 -- Soybeans: Nov 11 Soybeans closed at USD11.75 3/4, down 19 1/2 cents; Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.85 1/2, down 19 1/2 cents; Dec 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD303.10, down USD4.50; Dec 11 Soybean Oil closed at 50.99, down 86 points. The USDA report was a bit bearish overall for beans showing 2011/12 ending stocks rising 19% from last month to 195 million bushels. They also placed Brazil's crop up 1.5 MMT to 75 MMT and have them exporting more soybeans than America in 2011/12. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales range from 400 to 600 thousand MT.

Corn: Dec 11 Corn closed at USD6.56, down 4 1/2 cents; Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.65, down 6 cents. The USDA report was a bit more friendly to corn, pegging this season's US corn yield a bushel an acre lower than the trade expected at 146.7bpa and placing production at production at 12.310 billion bushels. Yields at that level are the lowest since 2003. Even so 2011/12 ending stocks were higher than trade estimates by 48 million bushels at 843 million. Trade estimates for Thursday's weekly export sales range from 550 to 750 thousand MT. European debt woes look like continuing to cap gains.

Wheat: Dec 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.43, down 14 cents; Dec 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.13, down 25 1/2 cents; Dec 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.51 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents. Minneapolis continues to lead the way, further increasing it's premium over Chicago and Kansas wheat. The USDA placed 2011/12 ending stocks higher than expected at 828 million bushels and raised world carryout at a ten-year high 202.6 MMT. EU wheat production was raised more than 1 MMT and Kazakhstan's by 2 MMT. EU and Russian export potential was increased by 1 MMT for each, whilst US exports were left unchanged. Trade estimates for tomorrows weekly export sales report range from 350 to 450 thousand MT.