EU Grains Mixed

09/11/11 -- EU grains finished mixed with Nov 11 London wheat down GBP0.50/tonne to GBP150.25/tonne and Nov 11 Paris wheat crashing EUR15.25/tonne to EUR187.50/tonne. Jan 12 Paris wheat was up EUR0.50/tonne to EUR188.00/tonne.

Nearby Nov 11 Paris wheat, which goes off the board tomorrow, had a truly remarkable session with an intra-day trading range of EUR29.00/tonne! At one stage it was being priced at a more than EUR20.00/tonne premium to Jan 12 before ending the day at a discount of EUR0.50/tonne.

Yields on Italian bonds hit fresh euro-era highs above 7% making the need for a bailout ever more likely. The problem is that with a public debt of almost EUR2 trillion, where is the money going to come from?

Greece has already been consigned to a bit part role as the heavyweights take centre stage. There is a real concern now that what began as Greek Farce will descend into an Italian Massacre rather quickly.

France AgriMer pegs the soft wheat crop there at 33.7 MMT, down 2 MMT from last season. Non-EU exports this season are seen falling by a third to 8.6 MMT, whilst exports within the Union are expected to decrease by a more modest 3% to 6.5 MMT.

The French Ministry's statistical unit Agreste meanwhile increased their corn production estimate there this season to 15.2 MMT, pegging yields at a record 10.1 MT/ha.

The Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation says that corn yields there will be a record 6 MT/ha this year.

The long awaited USDA numbers were a mixed bag placing US corn and soybean yields and production a little lower than expected. US 2011/12 ending stocks were however higher than anticipated for corn, wheat and soybeans.

Elsewhere around the globe they estimated Argentine wheat production down by 0.5 MMT, which was more than made up for by increases for the EU-27 of 1.15 MMT and Kazakhstan by 2 MMT, taking world ending stocks to 202.6 MMT - the highest in a decade.

Within the EU-27, French all wheat production was raised 0.7 MMT from last month to 36.0 MMT and UK output was increased to 15.35 MMT, 3% up on last year.

Russia and EU-27 wheat exports were seen rising by 1 MMT each.

EU-27 barley output was raised by almost 0.5 MMT to 52.4 MMT, with exports increasing by a similar amount to 2.5 MMT.