Nogger's Blog

14/11/11 -- Soybeans: Nov 11 Soybeans closed at USD11.72, up 6 cents; Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.78 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Dec 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD299.20, down USD0.30; Dec 11 Soybean Oil closed at 51.22, up 24 points. Funds bought an estimated 4,000 soybean contracts on the day. Widespread reports of Chinese buying supported the market, as too did suggestions from various analysts that China will need to import more beans than the USDA currently project in 2011/12. The weekly crop progress report showed 96% of soybeans harvested. The NOPA crush for October was lower than expected at 141.179 million bushels.

Corn: Dec 11 Corn closed at USD6.33 1/2, down 5 cents; Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.43 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents. Funds sold an estimated 8,000 contracts on the day. Reports of foreign buyers snapping up everything from Indian to Ukraine corn along with substantially cheaper feed wheat from the like of Australia may harm US export hopes for corn. Australian feed wheat is around USD70-75/tonne cheaper than US corn into southern Asia. There's some talk of China stepping in for corn at these levels, they waited until corn got to USD6/bushel before buying last time and their own harvest is now underway at around 9% complete. After the close the USDA reported the US crop at 93% harvested, up 13% from average.

Wheat: Dec 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.15 3/4, down 1 cent; Dec 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.92, down 12 cents; Dec 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.27 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents. Spillover weakness from corn dragged wheat lower. We are in a market where there are plenty of foreign sellers perfectly happy to undercut US wheat, yet the US seem fairly relaxed about that for the time being. That might not change until the spring. The weekly crop progress report showed 96% of intended winter wheat planted and crop conditions at 50% good/excellent, 4% better than last year.