Nogger's Blog

15/11/11 -- Ukraine's grain harvest is 96% complete at just over 54 MMT, according to the Ag Ministry. The on-going corn harvest has reached 85% done producing a crop of almost 18.5 MMT to date, they say. Winter plantings are 99% complete at 8.5 million hectares of which 6.5 million is wheat, they add.

The Australian Oilseeds Federation have upped their forecast for rapeseed production there to a record 2.63 MMT, 22% up on last season and a little higher than the USDA's latest offering of 2.5 MMT. Oil contents are said to be coming in higher than normal now that the harvest is underway.

Strong weekly export inspections for soybeans of 53.5 million bushels last night indicates that demand for US beans remains strong, as it usually is at this time of year. The continued suggestion of Chinese buying, and the potential for another robust set of export sales and shipment data on Thursday should underpin the market for now. Last week's numbers showed over 1.2 MMT of soybeans being shipped out of the US in the week to Nov 3rd, with China taking almost three quarters of that. Those sales could drop away sharply however once new crop comes on stream from South America in the New Year.

UK CPI inflation fell from 5.2% in September to 5.0% in October, according to data out today.

Yields on Spanish and Italian bonds are up again this morning, keeping the euro under pressure. Am I not alone in being surprised that we aren't closer to 1.25 against the single currency than the present 1.17?

South Korea is reported to have bought two cargoes of optional origin feed wheat at just under USD260/tonne delivered. Australian or Ukraine origin may be the most likely candidate for that in more evidence of corn pricing itself out of the market.