Nogger's Blog

08/11/11 -- Soybeans: Nov 11 Soybeans closed at USD11.95 1/4, up 3 cents; Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.05, up 3 1/4 cents; Dec 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD307.60, down USD1.70; Dec 11 Soybean Oil closed at 51.85, up 65 points. It was a quiet session ahead of tomorrow's USDA reports which are expected to show increased carryout for soybeans on the back of lower exports. Ending stocks are seen up 20 million bushels to 180 million. US soybean production is estimated at 3.05 billion bushels. Brazilian output may also be increased as plantings there have gone into the ground in a timely manner.

Corn: Dec 11 Corn closed at USD6.60 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents; Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.71, up 5 3/4 cents. Tomorrow's report is expected to show US corn yields and production falling slightly to 147.7bpa and 12.381 billion bushels respectively. 2011/12 ending stocks are seen down from 866 million bushels to 795 million, with global carryout also falling a little from 123.2 MMT to 122.4 MMT. Funds were said to have bought 11,000 contracts on the day with the USDA confirming the sale of 85,000 MT to South Korea.

Wheat: Dec 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.57, up 18 1/4 cents; Dec 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.38 1/2, up 14 cents; Dec 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.46 1/4, up 18 cents. Tomorrow's report is expected to have less potential to throw up a surprise for wheat than corn or beans. US 2011/12 ending stocks are seen falling 20 million bushels to 817 million and global carryout is also forecast slightly lower from last month at 201.56 MMT - still a weighty number. The most likely world candidate to see an increase in production from last month's estimates is probably Kazakhstan.