Nogger's Blog

15/11/11 -- The Globex grains were mostly firmer with soybeans leading the way and again looking like being the strongest leg of the complex for the third session in a row this afternoon.

Beans closed around 14-15 cents firmer overnight, with corn up 2-4 cents and wheat up one to down one on the nearbys.

Last night's strong export inspections for beans lent weight to ideas that demand remains strong, particularly from China who may have been buying on this most recent dip. At least that's the theory.

The Eurozone millstone of debt looks like ensuring that things don't get too carried away this afternoon though. Yields on Italian, Spanish and French bonds are back up today, the latter two to record differentials versus Germany. Europe is of course China's biggest export home, casting doubt even on it's considerable ability to continue to maintain growth if and when the good ship Eurozone sinks.

Whilst Asia is still buying corn, it is watering down it's requirements with considerably cheaper feed wheat purchases.

Ukraine has stepped up it's export efforts, with ports there now said to be operating at close to maximum capacity now that duties have been lifted and the corn harvest is winding down.

Wheat has fallen for four sessions in a row, declining 41 1/2 cents in that time, so maybe a modest rebound is due today? Even so US prices are still too dear for many buyers on the global market.

Corn has also fallen for the past four sessions, although by a more modest 26 1/2 cents, which again means we look set to see something of a minor correction this afternoon.

European stocks are lower and US markets are expected to trade likewise. Gold is down along with crude oil and the dollar is firmer, so if the grains are going to rally today then they look like having to go it alone as there isn't much outside help coming their way from that lot.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOt session: corn up 2-4 cents, beans up 14-16 cents, wheat flat to 2 cents firmer.