Chicago Markets Sitting Tight Until Friday

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 08:23 | Categorized as

06/12/11 -- Soybeans: Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.29 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents; Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.39 1/2, up 3 cents; Dec 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD282.20, up USD1.10; Dec 11 Soybean Oil closed at 49.98, down 9 points. As with European grains, the US markets remain in a state of flux, awaiting news from this side of the pond from the EU leaders' summit at the end of the week to determine direction. We also have the USDA out on Friday with their supply & demand numbers. US ending stocks are seen rising in 2011/12 to 214 million bushels from 195 million last month. Parts of Brazil are dry, but overall another large, and potentially record large, crop is in the pipeline.

Corn: Dec 11 Corn closed at USD5.85 1/4, up 5 cents; Mar 12 Corn closed at USD5.96 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents. The corn market is pondering the demand side of the equation as we head into 2012. Australia is harvesting what is expected to be a record wheat crop, much of which will only be feed grade, of which they already still have an abundance left over from last season. That will compete with US corn sales into Asia next year. Argentina are expecting a record corn crop, and are also flexing their export muscles. Meanwhile Japan is also seen buying record volumes from "Europe", which in this case probably means Ukraine who have also just brought in a record corn crop and who forecast plantings up 12% for 2012.

Wheat: Dec 11 CBOT Wheat closed unchanged at USD5.98 3/4; Dec 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.67, up 1/2 cent; Dec 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.54 1/4, up 6 cents. US wheat continues to miss export orders with Egypt buing 240,000 MT of Argentine/Russian wheat. Once again US wheat wasn't even offered. StatsCanada upped their wheat production estimate in one of America's biggest export rivals to 25.3 MMT, more than a million tonnes higher than the USDA and two million up on 2010/11. the trade was anticipating a number around 24.5 MMT. ABARES pegged Australia's 2011/12 wheat crop at an all-time record 28.3 MMT, which is 2.3 MMT more than the USDA. There isn't much change anticipated by the trade in Friday's USDA report as far as wheat is concerned, but I wonder if we may see world ending stocks for 2011/12 raised again from last month's 202.6 MMT.