The Morning Vibe

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 09:33 | Categorized as

07/12/11 -- Not much to get ones teeth into this morning as the trade waits for enlightenment on Friday with the conclusion of the EU leaders' summit and the issuing of Decembers WASDE and stocks numbers from the USDA.

The trade is expecting 2011/12 US soybean stocks to rise from the previously predicted 195 million bushels to 214 million this time round. Corn stocks are seen falling from 843 million to 831 million, with wheat inventories pretty flat at 830 million from 828 million.

On a global level soybean stocks are seen falling slightly from 63.56 MMT to 62.98 MMT, with corn and wheat stocks both up a little from 121.57 MMT to 121.87 MMT and from 202.6 MMT to 203.03 MMT respectively.

It will be interesting to see what production numbers they come out with for southern hemisphere crops like Australian wheat, and Argy & Brazilian corn and beans.

For UK and US wheat growers reading this who are unhappy with falling prices, spare a thought for your compatriots in landlocked Kazakhstan. They've just had a record wheat harvest but find themselves struggling to reach export homes far away as Russia and Ukraine busy themselves with shipping their own bumper harvests.

Stores, elevators, trucks and railcars are rammed with wheat with nowhere to take it. What price can a Kazakh farmer therefore expect to get for his ex farm wheat right now? Little more than EUR50/tonne is the answer, say Agritel. Ouch.

Elsewhere, as well as upping their wheat production estimate by more than 2 MMT from their last report in October StatsCanada also increased their 2011/12 rapeseed output forecast by more than a million tonnes to 14.16 MMT, 11% up on last season.

As the storm clouds gather over Europe, China has warned that export data due on Saturday will show a sharp slowdown in growth as demand from it's leading export home slumps.

Meanwhile, presumably keen not to be seen as the big wet that he undoubtedly is, our very own David Cameron has said that he'll be signing "bugger all" on Friday if France and Germany's proposals damage British interests. That's a bit like Ron Weasley offering Voldemort a fight behind the bike sheds.