Early Call On Chicago

10/01/12 -- The overnight grains finished mixed with wheat around 2-3 cents weaker, beans down a fraction and corn up a fraction. Crude oil is two dollars firmer.

The very latest weather forecasts continue to be poured over. Rains should cover 85-90% of Argentina during the next few days with amounts varying from a quarter of an inch to up to 3 inches in places. A new development today is an increased chance of moisture again in the middle of next week.

South Korea's largest feed producer has bought two cargoes of US corn today, plus one of optional origin feed wheat from Glencore to add to yesterday's similar feed wheat purchase from Toepfer. The wheat was priced around USD60/tonne cheaper than the corn. They clearly seem to be diluting their corn requirements with much cheaper feed wheat.

Conab today peg Brazil's soybean crop at 71.75 MMT, which although down on last season is actually an increase on where they were in December and the second largest crop in history. Corn production is however seen down from last month but up on a year ago to 59.2 MMT - still an all-time high despite the weather problems there.

Celeres still forecast a 74.4 MMT Brazilian soybean crop and a corn harvest a smidgen under 62 MMT.

Besides the Argentine rain issue the trade is nervously awaiting Thursday's USDA data. A bit like Christmas when you're a kid that can't come soon enough. Last month they had Brazilian soybeans at 75 MMT and Argy output at 52 MMT. For corn they had 61 MMT and 29 MMT.

China says they imported 52.64 MMT soybeans in 2011, down 3.9% from the previous year.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn flat to up 2c, beans flat to down 1c, wheat down 2-3 cents.