Nogger's Blog

11/01/12 -- The overnight grains ended lower as rains finally arrived for Argentina, bringing maybe slightly better totals than had been forecast. It looks like there's possibly a bit more in the forecast for tomorrow now too, here's a link to the latest GFS models with today's forecasts in the left hand column and yesterday's in the right hand column: Spot the difference.

It also seems that this front has ushered in cooler air behind it, so there's some respite from the hot temperatures that we've seen over the past couple of weeks. It seems far too early however to know how much good this rain event will bring, but it certainly can't do any harm.

The Globex market finished with beans 12-13 cents lower, corn down 4-5 cents and wheat down 3-5 cents.

All eyes now are on tomorrow's USDA report. The trade is expecting it to be a bit friendly for corn, with US 2011 production seen lower than last month and 2011/12 US ending stocks subsequently shrinking. Soybean output and stocks in the US are seen barely changed. All wheat acres may rise a little. Cuts for soybean and corn output in South America are also likely. That is what the market is banking on anyway. I will reserve judgement until tomorrow.

Other news is pretty scant. South Korea are buying feed wheat again today, this time for delivery by April 1 at around USD63.50/tonne cheaper than US corn.

The firm dollar and profit-taking ahead of tomorrow's reports mean that the opening calls are lower for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 10-12 cents, corn and wheat 3-5 cents lower.