Nogger's Blog

24/01/12 -- The overnight grains closed lower, partially reversing yesterday's gains, with beans around 7 cents weaker nearby, corn down 2-3 cents and wheat 3-5 cents weaker. Crude is down 72 cents at USD98.86/barrel.

Around two thirds to three quarters of Argentina got rains of 0.25 to 0.75 inches yesterday, there has apparently been more overnight and there's a bit more on the radar for this afternoon and tomorrow. After that we are looking at the first few days of Feb for the next forecast rain event.

The FAO now estimate Argentina’s 2012 corn crop at 21.4 MMT.

I think that by now we all lost count of the number of times that the market has shown signs of optimism that a resolution was in sight for the European debt problems.

The latest wave of bullishness on Europe now seems to be having it's hopes dashed on the cruel rocks of fate once more as Greece and it's debtors reach another impasse. "If you don't accept what's on the table then you won't get anything," warns Greece.

Has it not occurred to them that that may be exactly what some people want? Certainly those insured against a Greek default, but not against a voluntary Greek haircut.

S&P's are now warning that it may downgrade Greece to "selective default" as the EU/ECB and IMF ponder whether to release the next tranche of bailout cash.

India says that it's wheat harvest, which should begin in two months time, will surpass last season's 85.9 MMT total by an unspecified amount.

China is out of action this week for their Lunar New Year celebrations.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 6-8 cents, corn down 2-3 cents, wheat down 3-4 cents.