Nogger's Blog

25/01/12 -- The overnight grains were mixed with beans 1 3/4 down to 1 1/2 up, corn was 3 1/2 up to 1 3/4 down and wheat mostly around 2-4 cents firmer. Crude is down half a dollar or so.

Argentina got more rain overnight but will now have to wait until next week for it's next shot of moisture. Cropcast have come out with a pretty pessimistic number putting the soybean crop at 45 MMT.

The rally that started a week ago has seen corn put on 40 cents, wheat 44 cents and beans 34 1/2 cents, so maybe there's a bit of consolidation due?

When all said and done, based on the average of all the analysts listed below, are things really all that bad? A record and within half a million tonnes of record corn crop for Brazil and Argentina. Plus a second and joint second record soybean crop.

The Russian "news" isn't anything more than a reminder of what we knew already, that they are likely to slow down on exports now we are into 2012.

Portugal’s borrowing costs have risen to fresh euro-era highs today. Greece is still trying to play hardball despite only holding "Jack high" in it's hand. European leaders meet for a summit on Monday without a deal on the table once again. The UK is heading for, or indeed may already be in, another recession.

But don't let those things worry you right now, the only way is up. "The market needs to find a price level that will encourage farmers to sell," I read with a wry smile. How about dropping like a stone when Europe goes tits up, that might encourage a few sellers out of the woodwork!

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 2-4 cents, wheat up 3-5 cents, beans flat to 2 cents lower.