Nogger's Blog

21/02/12 -- Soybeans: Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.71, up 3 1/2 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.62 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Mar 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD330.20, down USD2.30; Mar 12 Soybean Oil closed at 54.06, up 66 points. Beans managed to close in positive territory despite the negative influence of sharply lower corn and wheat, with funds said to have bought around 2,000 soybean contracts on the day. Private exporters announced the sale of 250,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China. Outside markets offered some support with crude closing above USD106/barrel for the first time since April 2011 when Libya was in turmoil. Tensions with Iran are the reason this time round.

Corn: Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.29 1/2, down 12 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.63 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents. Funds sold an estimated 12,000 contracts on the day in anticipation of the USDA reporting a significant increase in potential US spring corn plantings on Friday. The largest acreage since WWII is what the trade is pricing in. If we were to get a return to trendline yields, as the USDA projected in last week's baseline numbers, then we'd be in for a huge crop come the autumn. That would see 2012/13 ending stocks at much more comfortable levels. In other news private exporters announced the sale of 110,744 MT of corn to unknown.

Wheat: Mar 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.33, down 11 cents; Mar 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.77, down 12 1/2 cents; Mar 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.16 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents. Chicago wheat traded 17 cents lower at one stage, but managed a minor recovery late in the session. Rabobank peg the US wheat planted area at 57 million acres, half a million more than the USDA currently project. Some rain is in the forecast for dry areas of the northern Plains starting Thursday. Algeria are tendering for 125,000 MT of optional origin wheat and Egypt may be back in the market again later in the week if prices fall much further.