Nogger's Blog

01/02/12 -- The overnight grains continued to build on last night's solid gains with beans closing around 8-10 cents firmer, corn up 8-9 cents and wheat 8-12 cents higher. Crude is a bit higher too and the dollar weaker, both adding support.

Oil World became the latest analyst to downgrade crop production in South America, issuing a forecast for soybean output in Argentina of 46.5 MMT and in Brazil of 70.0 MMT. Both estimates are down 2 MMT on previously and towards the low end of other trade forecasts.

The USDA are reporting 120,000 MT of soybeans sold to China and a similar volume of SRW wheat sold to unknown.

Extreme cold is already in place in Ukraine and Russia, effectively bringing exports out of the Black Sea to a halt. Similar Arctic conditions are now setting in for much of the rest of Europe.

Russia is said by some to be reviewing it's stance on grain exports tomorrow.

Greece says that a deal with private bond holders is "a formality" to be be concluded in a "matter of days" which is buoying European stock markets.

The early call for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 8-10 cents, wheat and soybeans up 10-12 cents. There's also an element of "new month, new money" kicking about today.