Nogger's Blog

09/02/12 -- The overnight grains were quiet ahead of the USDA report with corn ending 2-4 cents weaker, wheat mostly 1-2 cents lower and beans 1-2 cents firmer. Crude is around three quarters of a dollar higher.

The USDA appears to have already thrown most of its curve balls, as today's reports didn't contain any overly dramatic surprises.

Catching the eye though was an increase in world wheat ending stocks to a new all time high of 213.1 MMT, 3 MMT up on last month.

For wheat, US exports were raised half a million to 25.5 MMT, Argentina's were increased by a similar amount, with Russia's gaining by 1 MMT. Ukraine's were cut by a million and Canada's reduced by a half million.

Overall world wheat production was increased 1.3 MMT and world consumption reduced by 1 MMT.

World corn production fell 4 MMT courtesy of Argentina. There was no reduction for Brazil. Global corn stocks fell to 125.3 MMT, the lowest since 2006/07.

World soybean production was reduced 5.5 MMT, largely courtesy of Brazil (-2 MMT), Argentina (-2.5 MMT) and Paraguay (-1.2 MMT). Global consumption was down 2.2 MMT, and world stocks cut by 2.2 MMT.

Weekly export sales for wheat came in at a marketing-year high of 707,900 MT with unknown taking the lion's share of that (183,000 MT). That beat expectations of 450-700 TMT. Actual shipments were 464,000 MT.

Corn export sales of 694,100 MT for 2011/12 and 63,700 MT for delivery in 2012/13 were below expectations of 800 TMT-1.3 MMT.

Soybean sales were 603,200 MT for 2011/12 and 55,000 MT for delivery in 2012/13 compared to expectations of 55-750 TMT.

Overall the data is being called neutral, although how the highest wheat stocks in history can be that is beyond me. As the market was expecting a supportive/bullish slant rather then a neutral to slightly negative one we could see prices work lower than the initial opening calls which are: corn and wheat down 2-3 cents, soybeans down 2-4 cents.