Nogger's Blog

02/03/12 -- Soybeans: Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.28 1/4, up 11 1/2 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.98, up 3 3/4 cents; Mar 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD357.30, up USD3.60; Mar 12 Soybean Oil closed at 53.76, down 18 points. This was an impressive tenth straight day of gains for beans with added just under 50 cents on the week, with meal posting a weekly gain of USD23.70 as oil lost 53 points. Funds were said to have bought 6,000 soybean contracts on the day. The Commitment of Traders report shows large funds adding around 20,000 contracts on the week through to Tuesday. They've probably added another 12-14,000 since then, meaning that they're heavily overbought leaving the market vulnerable to a sudden and violent correction. But when?

Corn: Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.59, up 5 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.70, up 3 1/4 cents. On the week as a whole Mar 12 was up 18 1/4 cents and Dec up 12 cents. Funds were said to have bought 3-5,000 lots on the day, adding to the length that they've been steadily building since Christmas. The Commitment of Traders report shows large funds adding 35,000 of futures and options length in the week through to Tuesday. We now have the trade jockeying for position ahead of next Friday's USDA world supply and demand numbers. Informa Economics today pegged the Argentine corn crop at 22.5 MMT and the Brazilian crop at 61.5 MMT, that's unchanged from last month and 0.5 MMT above the USDA's February estimate in each case.

Wheat: Mar 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.70 3/4, up 11 1/2 cents; Mar 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.10 1/2, up 13 1/2 cents; Mar 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.27 3/4, up 13 3/4 cents. On the week as a whole Chicago wheat added 29 3/4 cents, Kansas 19 1/2 cents and Minneapolis 41 1/4 cents. Funds were said to be net buyers of around 3,000 Chicago contracts on the day. The Commitment of Traders report has them covering in around 8,000 of their short position on the week through to Tuesday, although that still leaves them short more than 51,000 lots. Russia's Ag Ministry says that the country will have exported around 23 MMT of grains by the end of the month. That means that shipments should slow up in the last quarter of 2011/12 as they approach their suggested 27 MMT limit.