Nogger's Blog

07/03/12 -- After a bit of consolidation yesterday the overnight grains were very lifeless with little change for beans, wheat or corn.

Brent crude is around 75 cents firmer with WTI up half a dollar or so after China said it would boost energy imports this year.

The dollar is firmer on it's "safe haven" status on nervousness that Greece won't get enough of it's bondholders to agree to take a more than 50% haircut on the debt they hold. The deadline is 20.00 GMT tomorrow, with a minimum of 75% needing to agree to swap their existing Greek government bonds for new debt.

Brazil's soybean crop is generally forecast in the range of 68-71 MMT versus 72 MMT from the USDA last month. Argentina's production is expected at around 45-48 MMT compared to 48 MMT from the USDA last month.

These lower production numbers should be more than priced into a market that's seen CBOT soybean prices up for 14 of the last 16 sessions during which time Mar 12 has risen by more than a dollar a bushel.

Brazil's corn crop is seen around the 60 MMT mark, aided by hopes for a strong performance from "safrinha" corn, 1 MMT less than the USDA said last time. Argentina's corn crop is expected to come in around 20 MMT, some 2 MMT lower than the current USDA number.

Once we get Friday's report out of the way we will no doubt end up in limbo again waiting for the planting intentions numbers at the end of the month.

Prior to that though, could Friday's WASDE report be usurped by Greece taking one step closer to a default if it fails to persuade enough bondholders to go for their debt swap?

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat flat to 2 cents lower, corn and soybeans mixed 2 cents higher to 2 cents lower.