Nogger's Blog

03/04/12 -- The overnight grains saw a bit of light consolidation with beans down 5-6 cents, wheat falling 5-10 cents and corn 2 cents higher on old crop to 3 cents lower on new crop. Brent crude is around half a dollar lower, NYMEX crude is three quarters of a dollar easier.

The USDA reveal that spring wheat plantings are off to a flyer, with 8% of the crop already in the ground as of Sunday compared to just 2% normally. Winter wheat crop conditions are much better than last year at 58% good-to-excellent.

Corn plantings however haven't progressed a lot, contrary to market expectations, going from 2% done last weekend to just 3% complete this weekend. Maybe that will see some corn acres shift into beans? Or maybe that's just caution, with few willing to plant ahead of the first planting insurance dates?

Celeres have cut their Brazilian soybean crop forecast by almost 2 MMT to 67.97 MMT, around half a million less than the USDA although towards the higher end of other trade estimates. For corn, they've increased things slightly from 60.4 MMT to 60.71 MMT. Soybean harvesting is 76% done as of Friday, nine points ahead of a year ago. Summer corn harvesting is 61% complete, they added.

A report on Bloomberg quoting French analysts Agritel says that European wheat prospects may have taken a 6 MMT hit at the hands of the February freeze and winter drought.

Russia's exports have slowed right up with the Grain Union saying that the country only shipped 1.6 MMT of grains in March. Russia’s Ag Ministry estimate 2011/12 grain ending stocks at 18 MMT.

Ukraine says it exported 2.41 MMT of grain last month, full 2011/12 exports are likely to be around 21 MMT.

US winter wheat crop development is ahead of normal and harvesting of the 2012 crop is now only six weeks away!

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat 5-10 cents lower, soybeans down 5-7 cents, corn 1-2 cents higher old crop and 1-2 cents lower on new crop.