Nogger's Blog

17/04/12 -- The overnight grains rebounded higher on soybeans which were up 6-8 cents, wheat 2-3 cents higher and corn mixed a cents or so either way. WTI crude is up a dollar, Brent is around unchanged.

The market is bracing itself for a corn planting progress number from the USDA around a record 20% complete. Beneficial moisture has fallen across much of the Midwest with more on the way too to help get the crop off to a good and early start, maximising yield potential. So far so good, although there's a very long way to go yet.

Soybean plantings are expected to be around 5% complete. Spring wheat sowings could be as much as 50% done. Winter wheat good/excellent was 61% last week, a huge improvement on year ago levels.

The USDA have reported the sale of 225,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations today, split 110,000 MT old crop and 115,000 MT new crop.

Michael Cordonnier has reduced his Argentine soybean production estimate to 43.5 MMT, 1.5 MMT below the USDA's latest number, as the crop there keeps getting smaller.

Oil World have lowered their Argy forecast to 44 MMT and cut their Brazilian soybean production estimate to 65 MMT, 1 MMT below the USDA's figure.

Russia exported a record 18.5 MMT of wheat between July 1, 2011, and April 15, 2012, and will finish the season exporting a total of 20.5 MMT, according to the Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies.

Total grain exports for the 2011/12 marketing year will be a record 25 MMT, according to the Ag Ministry, or even higher at 25.7 MMT according to RusAgroTrans.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: soybeans up 5-7 cents, wheat up 1-3 cents, corn mixed.