The USDA Numbers
10/04/12 -- Here they are folks, the eagerly awaited USDA numbers. They've cut Brazilian soybean production 2.5 MMT from last month to 66.0 MMT, which is a bit more aggressive than the trade was expecting and falls half a million below the lowest trade estimate. Argentina's soybean output is trimmed half a million to 21.5 MMT - in line with the average trade guess.US ending stocks are cut 25 million bushels for soybeans to 250 million - pretty much bang on what was expected as too is US wheat ending stocks trimmed from 825 million to 793 million. A bit of a bearish surprise is US corn stocks left unchanged at 801 million bushels.
World wheat stocks are cut almost 3.3 MMT to 206.3 MMT, when the trade was only expecting a reduction of 1 MMT. World corn and soybean stocks are in line with trade estimates.
All in all it reinforces the bullish tone for soybeans and could be called a bit bearish for corn given the pace of early plantings.
USDA 2011/12 US Ending Stocks Estimates (Million Bushels):
| Product | USDA Apr | Avg Est | Range | USDA Mar |
| Wheat | 793 | 792 | 720-825 | 825 |
| Corn | 801 | 721 | 626-812 | 801 |
| Beans | 250 | 246 | 214-300 | 275 |
USDA 2011/12 World Ending Stocks Estimates (MMT):
| Product | USDA Apr | Avg Est | Range | USDA Mar |
| Wheat | 206.3 | 208.62 | 207.0-209.7 | 209.58 |
| Corn | 122.7 | 122.45 | 119.0-126.0 | 124.53 |
| Beans | 55.5 | 55.42 | 52.6-58.0 | 57.30 |
South American 2011/12 Crop Production:
| Product | USDA Apr | Avg Est | Range | USDA Mar | Year Ago |
| Brazil Soybeans | 66.0 | 67.1 | 66.5-68.1 | 68.5 | 75.5 |
| Brazil Corn | 62.0 | 61.8 | 60.0-64.0 | 62.0 | 57.5 |
| Argentina Soybeans | 45.0 | 45.2 | 44.0-46.2 | 46.5 | 49.0 |
| Argentina Corn | 21.5 | 21.5 | 20.5-22.0 | 22.0 | 23.8 |
