Nogger's Blog

14/05/12 -- EU grains finished mostly lower, although May 12 London wheat closed up GBP1.00/tonne to GBP173.50/tonne. Nov 12 fell GBP0.50/onne to GBP147.70/tonne. Aug 12 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR197.50/tonne and new crop Nov 12 fell EUR0.75/tonne to EUR195.50/tonne.

Strategie Grains now say that 11% of German winter wheat and 13% of winter barley were lost to winterkill, an upward revision from the respective 6% and 9% estimated previously.

The German spring wheat, spring barley and corn planted area estimates are all revised higher on the back of these losses.

They estimate the German soft wheat crop at just under 22 MMT compared with 22.7 MMT last year. Barley output is seen 9% higher this year at 9.6 MMT, with corn production marginally higher at 5.3 MMT. Their wheat estimate is 0.5 MMT below the USDA's figure released Thursday, whilst their barley forecast is 0.5 MMT higher than the USDA.

They also say that the weather in France during April "was again rather unusual. The volume of national rainfall was almost 165 % of the average for this month. There were rainstorms and especially heavy rain in western France (double the seasonal average). The water balance since the start of March is now +30% in most regions but it remains in deficit compared to average for the period from September through May."

We maintain our estimate for total wheat area published April 17 of 4.8 Mha (4.99 Mha in 2011/12). Projected wheat yield is revised up at 7.13 MT/ha (7,09 MT7/ha previously and 6.81 MT/ha in 2011/12) due to the increases in Normandy, Picardie and Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We now expect soft wheat production at 34.22 MT (34.06 MT previously and 33.99 MT in 2011/12), they add.