USDA World Corn Numbers

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 15:55 | Categorized as

10/05/12 -- The USDA's first foray into 2012/13 predictably gave us the largest US corn crop in history - over 375 MMT. That is seen changing the world supply and demand fundamentals quite dramatically next season.

Whilst the USDA's world wheat production estimate is very much in line with what we'd already had from the IGC, in the case of corn at 945.8 MMT it is considerably higher - 45.8 MMT higher in fact and represents an increase 8.7% in global output.

Firstly that means that US ending stocks will more than double from 21.6 MMT to 47.8 MMT in 2012/13 - the highest since 2005/06. It also means that world ending stocks will recover from 127.6 MMT in the current year to 152.3 MMT next season - the highest in twelve years.

Increases in production around the globe in 2012/13 are expected from Argentina (25 MMT, up 17%), Canada (12.6 MMT, up 18%), Mexico (21 MMT, up 11%), South Africa (13 MMT, up 13%) and Ukraine (24 MMT, up 5%).

Argentine (15 MMT0, Ukraine (14 MMT) and Brazil (10.5 MMT) will all compete with America (48 MMT) on the world export stage in 2012/13.