Nogger's Blog

10/05/12 -- The USDA paint a much tighter picture for soybean availability in first half of 2012/13 than they do for corn or wheat. In South America, the harvest that is just about over in Brazil and midway through in Argentine actually falls into the 2011/12 marketing year, we've got almost 12 months to wait yet before we get to 2012/13 there.

For the year we are in now the USDA peg Brazilian soybean production down 14% at 65 MMT and Argentine output down 13% to 42.5 MMT.

That puts the burden of supply on a soybean hungry world very much on America's shoulders for the remainder of 2012. The USDA cut 2011/12 US ending stocks by more than expected to 5.7 MMT and projected 2012/13 carryout even tighter at 3.9 MMT.

US ending stocks have only been lower than this four times in the last forty years, and when that number is taken on a stocks to usage basis this is the tightest availability since the mid-1960's.

Insatiable China's 2011/12 soybean imports are seen rising 3.7 MMT to 56 MMT, and by a further 4 MMT to 61 MMT in 2012/13.