Nogger's Blog

09/07/12 -- Soybeans: Jul 12 Soybeans closed at USD16.65 1/4, up 45 1/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD15.47 3/4, up 42 cents; Jul 12 Soybean Meal finished at USD485.50, up USD13.90; Jul 12 Soybean Oil closed at 54.43, up 116 points. Even though the market closed significantly higher it was actually also well off session highs. A dry weekend and the promise of more of the same for the week ahead set the tone, and had Jul 12 beans trading at a record high for a front month with funds rushing in to extend their long by an estimated 13,000 contracts. The USDA pegged good/excellent crop conditions at 40%, five percentage points down on last week, but bang in line with expectations. The second top producing soybean state of Illinois has 42% of its crop rated poor/very poor, down eleven points in a week. More than half the crop in Indiana is now rated poor/very poor. Lanworth Inc, who use satellite imagery to forecast crop production, estimate the US soybean planted area at half a million acres lower than the USDA's number.

Corn: Jul 12 Corn closed at USD7.75 1/4, up 32 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.30, up 37 cents. Funds were aggressive buyers to start the week once again, coming in for an estimated 25,000 contracts. A few months touched up the daily 40 cent limit, but as with soybeans were unable to hold those intra-day highs. Nevertheless there are few who would call this anything other than a pause en route to higher ground. The USDA cut good/excellent crop ratings by eight percentage points for the second time in a row to 40%. The crop in Illinois, also the second largest corn producing state, is now rated 48% poor/very poor, with a whopping 61% of the crop in Indiana now in the bottom two categories. In addition Lanworth say that US corn plantings this year are in fact a million acres lower than the USDA currently predict. The USDA are expected to cut projected 2012 US corn yields from 166bpa last month to 154bpa on Wednesday. Even so, further cuts are anticipated down the line, with some private estimates now below 140bpa at the end of the day.

Wheat: Jul 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.10 3/4, up 19 1/2 cents; Jul 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.17 1/2, up 28 cents; Jul 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.14, up 1/4 cent. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 4,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day, following corn higher. Breaking news over the weekend of Russian flooding was supportive as we await clarification of any potential damage to standing crops, stored grain and also the road and rail infrastructure in the region. The USDA cut spring wheat good/excellent conditions by five percentage points to 66%, which is now a little lower than a year ago, although still a decent performance and far better than corn or soybeans. Winter wheat harvesting is now three quarters done versus 56% on average. A private forecast from Martell Crop Projections suggests that the crop in the top US state of Kansas will only come in at 350 million bushels versus the 387 million bushels currently estimated from USDA.