Nogger's Blog

10/07/12 -- The electronic market and European grains have opened on the defensive this morning, with soybeans and corn currently 10-12 cents easier, and wheat 11-15 cents weaker in Turnaround Tuesday style.

I guess that we are talking profit-taking after recent steep gains, and a bit of caution creeping in ahead of tomorrow's USDA reports.

Nov 12 London wheat is currently GBP2.00/tonne lower and its Parisian chum EUR2.75/tonne weaker.

Where is it all going to end? As someone just said to me, at the moment grains are like this year's "must have" Christmas present. The Chinese certainly seem to want soybeans. Customs data out this morning shows them importing 5.62 MMT in June, a 31% increase on a year ago, taking FH 2012 shipments to over 29 MMT, 22.5% up on the same period in 2011.

China's Stats Bureau say that this year's summer grain production will be a record 130 MMT, but then again would you expect them to say anything different? Winter wheat output will be 114.3 MMT, up 3% on last year they add.

Last night's USDA crop progress report showed soybean good/excellent conditions declining 5% and corn falling 8% for the second week in a row in the top two categories.

These are the lowest ratings at this time of year since 1988.

UkrAgroConsult peg the Ukraine grain crop at 43.4 MMT, down 1.1 MMT on their previous estimate and almost 20% lower than last year. They see corn output at 20.0 MMT, wheat at 14.2 MMT and barley at 6.5. MMT.

A bit of a warning shot....remember how the news of  the demise of MF Global unsettled the market back in October/November? Reuters are reporting today that more than half of clients deposits at Iowa brokerage form PFGBest are "missing" and that the owner of the company has apparently attempted to commit suicide. Clients are only able to trade in order to liquidate accounts, they say.