Nogger's Blog

19/09/12 -- Soycomplex: Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD16.69 1/2, up 29 1/2 cents; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD16.69 1/4, up 30 cents; Oct 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD499.70, up USD8.30; Oct 12 Soybean Oil closed at 55.83, up 92 points. The market recovered somewhat from a hefty two day sell-off on bargain hunting, despite crude oil slumping more than USD4/barrel at one point. Funds were estimated to have bought in around 9,000 of the 12,000 soybean contracts they sold yesterday. Unconfirmed reports suggest that China has been back buying US beans on this latest break in prices over the past couple of days. Harvest pressure remains though. A cold snap for the Upper Midwest isn't thought likely to hold much damage potential thanks to the crop being well forward. Rains in southern Brazil's Rio Grand do Sul, the second good rain event in as many weeks, are seen extending into the southwest parts of Parana tonight/tomorrow. That will be beneficial ahead of soybean planting. Further north, the top soybean state of Matto Grosso which has been very dry since May, is also seen starting to pick up some much-needed rain by the weekend. Trade estimates for weekly export sales are 600-800,000 MT.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.56 1/2, up 16 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.58 3/4, up 14 3/4 cents. Corn also put in a consolidation day, with funds said to have bought a net 11,000 contracts on the day. A Reuters trade survey estimated US corn yields at 121bpa, versus 122.8bpa from the USDA earlier this month. Weekly US ethanol production was seen at 834,000 barrels/day up from 816,000bpd a week ago, but behind the 871,000bpd of a year ago. US ethanol stocks were reported to be the highest in 7 weeks. Corn output in Canada is forecast 11.4% higher than last year at 11.7 MMT, they are expected to be a net exporter rather than an importer in 2012/13. As with soybeans, the advanced condition of the early planted US corn crop makes damage from this week's cold snap minimal. Harvesting corn continues at a record early pace. The USDA reported Monday night that 26% of the crop has already been harvested, that could be past halfway by the end of the month. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 300-400 MT.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.81 1/2, up 18 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD9.10, up 21 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.42, up 17 1/2 cents. Fund buying was estimated at 3,000 of the 4,000 Chicago contracts that they sold yesterday. The Canadian government pegged wheat production there this year at 27 MMT, up 0.3 MMT from last month and a 7% increase on last year. Iraq bought 150,000 MT of Russian wheat for November delivery, with US wheat well priced out again (and also by Ukraine and Canadian offers). Egypt said that their recent buying spree means that they now have almost 7-months worth of wheat supply. South Korea bought 28,700 MT of US wheat for December shipment. Japan are looking for 120 TMT of feed wheat for December, Australia might be the most likely seller of that. India are also filling in some of the Asian enquiries, with very large stocks under it's belt. So the US isn't having all it's own way with international wheat tenders, and is having to scrap for every order. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 300,000-400,000 MT.