Nogger's Blog

20/09/12 -- The market seems a bit confused, forgetting entirely about Turnaround Tuesday, then remembering it on Wednesday before dismissing the notion again this morning.

The funds too are displaying signs of Alzheimer's, having pretty much bought back in last night everything that they sold on Tuesday.

Whoever said that volatility was you new norm was right (it was you you soft get, oh yes so it was).

Right now, where was I? Cup of tea anyone? I remember when all this was fields...right the news this morning...

Ukraine have hit the ground running in 2012/13, having exported 4.39 MMT of grains so far from Jul 1 - Sep 17. That's a 60% increase on last year, although early season exports in 2011/12 were disrupted by the hangover of export duties from the previous season.

Of that total 2.13 MMT is wheat, 1.25 MMT corn and 0.96 MMT barley. The Ministry say that they will harvest a crop of 46.0-46.5 MMT this year (18-19% down on last year), with exports at 20 MMT (8% down on 2011/12).

A report in today's FT says that Ukraine are close to signing a deal with China to supply them with 3 MMT of corn a year in exchange for a sack of cash which they will use to buy "Chinese agricultural technologies" and melamine. No, I'm only joking about the melamine, China has a sufficient domestic requirement for all the melamine it can eat. The FT story is here

South Korea has used the latest price dip to book 110,000 MT of US soymeal from ADM, according to wire reports.

Oil World estimate that China's soybean stocks are currently 13.0 MMT, and may drop by a further 4-5 MMT between now and February as the government step up their domestic auctions. The USDA currently peg 2012/13 Chinese ending stocks at 11.7 MMT.

Oil World also point out that as of Sep 7 as well as China's confirmed soybean purchases from the US of 13.119 MMT (versus 10.279 MMT a year ago), the US have also sold 4.848 MMT to "unknown" versus 1.912 MMT a year ago.

The USDA report that around three quarters of their entire 2012/13 marketing year export forecast as already being sold with 90% of the crop still in the field.

Brazil's 2012/13 soybean forward sales are close to being 50% of the crop, and planting of that hasn't really started yet.

That's what you call strong demand.

Iraq bought 150 TMT of Russian wheat yesterday for November shipment. Egypt's Nomani Nomani is now sitting on his fat greasy hands, saying that they now have 7-months worth of wheat supplies.

Informa Economics are due to release revised acreage estimates this afternoon, which are said to incorporate recent data from the Farm Service Agency, which was thought to indicate larger plantings for both corn and beans than previously reported by the USDA.

Liverpool FC have confirmed that they are to sign Lenny Henry in the transfer window to ensure that they get to stay in the Premier.