Nogger's Blog

04/09/12 -- Soycomplex: Sep 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.71, up 6 1/2 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.68 1/4, up 11 3/4 cents; Sep 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD541.40, down USD5.70; Sep 12 Soybean Oil closed at 57.57, up 115 points. Beans and meal raced to new contract highs in electronic trade, although profit-taking kicked in to pare those gains later in the day. Funds were said to have ended up as net buyers of around 4,000 soybean contracts on the day. The remains of Hurricane Isaac brought drenching weekend rains to the lower Mississippi Valley and eastern Midwest, which will have improved soil moisture, but came too late to help soybeans pod filling, say Martell Crop Projections. Allendale estimated the US soybean yield at 34.9 bpa versus the USDA's August estimate of 36.1 bpa, and place the 2012 US soybean crop at 2.602 billion bushels versus the USDA August estimate of 2.692 billion. Dr Michael Cordonnier came out with a yield estimate of 34.5 bpa, and it is rumoured that satellite technology analysts Lanworth are now saying 35.0 bpa. It would seem therefore that we finally have a fairly narrow and consistent range of trade guesses after a summer of great disparity. FCStone are expected to release their latest production estimates tomorrow afternoon with Informa due on Friday morning ahead of the USDA's own revised numbers are out next Wednesday.

Corn: Sep 12 Corn closed at USD8.07, up 4 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD8.05, up 5 1/4 cents. Corn also closed well off session highs, although funds were given credit for having been net buyers of around 7,000 contracts on the day. Allendale estimate the 2012 US corn yield at 118.2 bpa versus the USDA's August estimate of 123.4 bpa. This year's US corn crop is estimated at 10.326 billion bushels compared to 10.779 billion from the USDA. Dr Cordonnier came up with an estimate of 119.0 bpa, down 2bpa from his previous estimate of 121.0 bpa. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Lanworth lowered their corn production by 2.5% to 10.195 billion, using a US yield of 116.64 bpa. The USDA announced the sale of 180 TMT of US corn to Japan for 2013/14 delivery. Further evidence of demand rationing, at least for old crop corn, came via the USDA's weekly export inspections report. For corn just 6.37 million bushels were inspected for export this week, compared to 15.061 million last week. Export interest is clearly switching elsewhere. Brazil's Ministry says that the nation exported a record 2.76 MMT of corn in August versus 1.70MTM in July and 1.52 MMT in Aug 2011. Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2012/13 corn crop at 68.03 MMT, down 6% from a year ago.

Wheat: Sep 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.66, down 4 cents; Sep 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.81 1/4, up 1/2 cent; Sep 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.28 3/4, down 3 cents. Fund activity was said to have been around even on the day for Chicago wheat. US wheat was well priced out of Egypt's weekend tender, the majority of which went to Russian origin grain. Russia’s Ag Ministry said that the grain harvest there is 65% complete with an average yield of 1.89 MT/ha down 27% from a year ago. The average wheat yield is 1.95 MT/ha versus 2.87 MT/ha a year ago. Things are even worse in Kazakhstan where they've harvested 6.4 MMT of grain off 55% of the planted area, with yields at just 0.75 MT/ha, almost half the 1.4 MT/ha level of a year ago. The USDA reported weekly export inspections for wheat of 25.446 million bushels, up almost 35% on the 18.888 million inspected for export last week, and well above the 10-15 million that the trade was expecting. The USDA reported spring wheat harvesting almost over at 95% complete, versus 72% normally. In the southern hemisphere, Australian wheat areas picked up only light showers across the weekend, with coverage of around 25%. Argentine wheat areas continue to see abundant moisture, although farmers there have sown the smallest wheat area in at least 50 years, according to one local Cereals Exchange.