The Morning Vibe

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 09:40 | Categorized as

05/09/12 -- The overnight Globex market sees beans 8-10 cents lower, with corn down 4-5 cents and wheat anywhere from 2-6 cents easier.

Last night's crop progress report from the USDA left both soybean and corn good/excellent conditions unchanged from last week at 30% and 22% respectively.

Corn harvesting moved on to 10% done, from 6% a week ago and 3% normally. Not a great advance which was probably due to rains from Hurricane Isaac. Spring wheat harvesting is now 95% done versus 72% normally.

An assortment of private firms are now predicting US soybean yields in the 34.5-35.0 bpa region versus the USDA's August estimate of 36.1 bpa. For corn trade guesses currently seem to be centred around 117-119 bpa, versus the USDA's 123.4 bpa. FCStone are out with their numbers later today and Informa come out on Friday.

With all the doom and gloom in the northern hemisphere, attention is now switching to the southern hemisphere as corn and soybean planting in South America gets underway.

"Argentina field moisture has been completely restored following a serious winter drought, suggesting corn plantings may increase this season. If El Nino takes hold, the yield outlook would be considerably brighter than last year, when severe drought decimated the crop," say Martell Crop Projections.

"The USDA anticipates a 33% increase in Argentina corn production this season, 28 MMT compared to 21 MMT in last season’s drought-ravaged harvest. This would allow for 18.5 MMT of corn for export, 6.7 MMT higher than 2011-12.

"Corn planting is due to start within the next 2-3 weeks, weather permitting. Planting begins in Buenos Aires in the south, finishing in early October in Cordoba and Santa Fe. Soybeans are planted much later than corn, mostly in November-early December," they add.

Brazilian farmers are expected to ramp up their soybean plantings to a record acreage this year. The USDA currently estimate 2012/13 soybean production there at 81 MMT, with most private analysts lining up a little above that in the 81.3-82.23 MMT region. The latter would mean an increase in this year's output of around 25%.

Conab come out with their first 2012/13 Brazilian crop report on Oct 9th.

Elsewhere, Russia's wheat harvest may reach 41.3 MMT, according to the APK-Inform Agency, which is a bit better than the 38-39 MMT estimates released last week by SovEcon and IKAR.

Ukraine's grain harvest is two thirds done producing 25.8 MMT so far with yields averaging 2.57 MT/ha, according to the Ag Ministry there. Yields this time last year were 3.03 MT/ha. The corn harvest is just getting underway at 2% done.

The UN yesterday made another impassioned plea for "swift and co-ordinated" action to stave off rising food prices and fight world hunger. In the firing line are western government's biofuels mandates, along with "panic buying" and an appeal (presumably aimed at the Black Sea region) not to introduce export bans.

A White House spokesman said "well, we'd like to help, but it's an election year." David Cameron said "What's a mandate? That's something that gay men go on isn't it? We can't ban that. There'd be uproar in the House of Lords."