Nogger's Blog

24/10/12 -- Soycomplex: Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD15.70 1/2, up 17 1/4 cents; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.72 1/4, up 16 1/2 cents; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD481.90, up USD5.70; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 51.84, up 52 points. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 6,000 soybean contracts on the day. The USDA said 105,000 MT of US beans were sold to unknown. Rumour continues to circulate that China has been buying on this recent dip, maybe we will get some confirmation of that in tomorrow's weekly export sales report? Trade estimates for beans are 600-900 TMT versus last week's 525,200 MT. Weekly shipments will also likely reaffirm the recent strong pace of exports slanted heavily in favour of the first half of the 2012/13 season. Celeres said that 47% of the 2012/13 Brazilian bean crop has already been sold. Continued wetness in Argentina may see some intended corn acres shift into beans.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.54 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.56, unchanged. Funds were said to have been around even on the day. It is interesting to note that Mexico imported 7.82 MMT of corn in 2011/12, with 99% of it coming from the US. Yesterday Mexico bought 270 TMT of non-US corn. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 150-375 TMT versus 166,700 MT last week. Weekly sales need to average 420 TMT/week to meet the current USDA target for 2012/13. This week's ethanol production data shows output at 801,000 barrels/day this past week. A year ago that total was 909,000 barrels/day. As well as US corn exports lagging, cumulative ethanol production data suggests that demand for corn from that sector will also fall short of the current USDA target for 2012/13. MDA CropCast cut their Argentine corn production estimate by 360 TMT to 26.65 MMT from last week due to continued wetness forcing acreage reductions there.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.84, up 15 1/4 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD9.21 1/4, up 13 1/2 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.55, up 10 cents. Ukraine formally confirmed their Nov 15 wheat export ban. We know that some sales have been made for delivery beyond this date, including to Egypt. The trade is speculating therefore that Ukraine traders may have to claim force majuere on those sales, leaving the buyers to re-enter the market. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are 250-450 TMT versus 410,000 MT last week. Accumulated US wheat sales are nothing special, but the trade believes that these will pick up significantly in the second half of the season as Black Sea supplies dry up. In the US "dry conditions prevailed across the Plains much of this past week, which maintained considerable moisture shortages across central areas. Colder temperatures across the Plains this week will burn back wheat growth and will slow establishment of the crop," say MDA CropCast.