EU Wheat Gains As Ukraine Confirms Export Ban

24/10/12 -- EU grains rose with Nov 12 London wheat adding GBP1.50/tonne to GBP206.50/tonne and Nov 12 Paris wheat gaining EUR3.50/tonne to EUR266.75/tonne. Nov 13 London wheat set a fresh lifetime contract high of GBP186.00/tonne before closing just below that level at GBP185.90/tonne for a net gain of GBP3.15/tonne on the day.

Official confirmation of the Ukraine Nov 15th wheat export ban came from the Ag Minister there, boosting prices. Egypt have wheat bought from Ukraine for Nov 11-20th and 21-30th shipment. It is unclear what will happen to these purchases now.

The Ministry also said that the domestic grain harvest is 91% complete producing  40 MMT so far. Yields are averaging 2.97 MT/ha versus 3.44 Mt/ha a year ago, almost 14% down on a year ago.

Corn harvesting is at 73% done, producing 13.78 MMT so far, suggesting a final crop around 19 MMT which is a couple of million below the USDA's latest forecast. The Ministry are calling for a crop of 20 MMT and exports of 12 MMT this season.

News that China imported 524 TMT of wheat in September caught the eye, especially in light of it's recent 295 TMT purchase of Canadian wheat. That may signal that current corn prices could stimulate wheat usage there.

Russia's Ag Ministry said that the country had exported 9.32 MMT of grains so far this marketing year (Jul 01-Oct 17), a fall of 19% year-on-year. Rosstat said that domestic grain stocks held in commercial hands as at Oct 01 were 12.7 MMT down on the same date last year at 35.8 MMT, a drop of over 35%.

Agritel estimate the Australian wheat crop at 21 MMT, down 29% on last year. They also forecast the Argy wheat crop at 11.5 MMT, a fall of 26% on a year ago.