The Morning Vibe

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 09:51 | Categorized as

03/10/12 -- The overnight electronic market is sharply lower this morning with soybeans down around 20-25 cents, with corn down 8-10 cents lower and wheat 10-14 cents easier.

FCStone put a dampener on things with a couple of yield/production estimates that were better than last month's USDA projections. They see US corn yields at 123.9 bushels/acre, giving a crop of 10.824 billion bushels this year. The USDA were 122.8bpa and 10.727 billion bushels in September.

For soybean,s FCStone went 38.2bpa and production of 2.849 billion bushels versus the USDA's 35.3bpa and 2.634 billion bushels.

Informa are said to be out on Friday with their latest forecasts ahead of the USDA themselves next Thursday.

Wheat is down for the sixth day in seven, whilst front month beans have now shed 15% since the first business day of September and corn is down a more modest 7% in the same time frame.

Extreme weakness in Malaysian palm oil, which has crashed to its lowest in more than three years, is weighing on the soycomplex in particular.

China is closed this week for a national holiday, effectively taking them out of the market, adding to the bearish tone. It is worth noting however the strong seasonal tendency for corn and soybeans to both put in a harvest low around now. Wheat on the other hand, make a note, has bottomed out in June/July in each of the last three years.

Egypt are back tendering for wheat today, with the results expected this afternoon, and France the favourites to again win the majority of the business. It will be interesting to see if Russian wheat is even offered for Dec 11-20 delivery, and if so at what price. US wheat isn't expected to stack up, but you never know.

Agritel say that Ukraine has already shipped 0.6 MMT of rapeseed in Q1 of 2012/13 out of an expected full season total of 1.0 MMT.

The Russian Ministry say that the country exported 2.616 MMT of grains between Sep 1-26, including 2 MMT of wheat. That brings their 2012/13 marketing year-to-date grain exports to 7.435 MMT, which is 19% down on last year, they say.