Nogger's Blog

08/11/12 -- Soycomplex: Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.99 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.95 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD462.90, down USD6.60; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 48.77, up 15 points. Weekly export sales for soybeans fell short of expectations of 400-700 TMT at only 186,400 MT for 2012/13 along with 5,000 MT for 2013/14 delivery. A large Chinese cancellation of 274,800 MT was partly responsible. Weekly shipments on the other hand were the highest in two year at 1.75 MMT. This was the sixth week of shipments in excess of 1 MMT, with 1.3 MMT of this week's total heading for China. With commitments for 2012/13 already running at 75% of the USDA's target, it will be interesting to see if they raise that bar a bit higher tomorrow. China only sold 65,495 MT of the 400 TMT of government-owned soybeans offered at auction today. Brazil's CONAB estimated the 2012/13 soybean crop there at 80.09–82.99 MMT versus previous estimate of 80.0-82.8 MMT. MDA CropCast place the crop there at 80.33 MMT. They also placed the US soybean crop at 2.67 billion bushels against 2.86 billion from the USDA last month, tomorrow's average trade guess is a little higher at 2.892 billion.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.41 1/4, down 3 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.43 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents. Weekly export sales were poor again at 157,600 MT for 2012/13 and 51,800 MT for 2013/14. The USDA did also report the sale of 152,400 MT to Japan under the daily reporting system. MDA CropCast placed the US corn crop at 10.293 billion bushels versus 10.7 billion from the USDA in October and the average trade guess for tomorrow of 10.629 billion. CONAB estimated Brazil's 2012/13 corn crop at 71.55–72.85 MMT versus their previous estimate of 71.9-73.2 MMT. MDA CropCast say 70.4 MMT, versus 70 MMT from the USDA in October. The former place the Argentine corn crop at 26.28 MMT against 28 MMT from the USDA. The trade estimates US 2012/13 corn ending stocks at 635 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 487–750 million and versus the October report estimate of 619 million and 988 million in 2011/12.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD9.02 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD9.37, up 5 1/2 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.58 3/4, down 1 cent. Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 209,400 MT of old crop and 11,500 MT of new crop against trade ideas of 200-400 TMT. A Reuters survey estimates the Australian wheat crop at 20.47 MMT compared to the ABARES estimate of 22.5 MMT and the 2011/12 crop of 29.5 MMT. Exports are seen falling sharply to 16.85 MMT, down 25% from ABARE’s estimate and 27% below exports of 23.04 MMT in 2011/12. Wheat ending stocks in 2012/13 will more than halve to 3.47 MMT vs. 7.2 MMT in 2011/12. The FAO pegged the world wheat crop at 661 MMT this year, 5.5% down on a year ago. CONAB cut their Brazilian wheat production estimate to 4.46 MMT versus a previous estimate of 5.0 MMT and compared to 5.7 MMT a year ago. The Russian Ag Minister revised his grain export forecast upwards from 10-12 MMT to "in excess of 12 MMT" according to the InterFax News Agency. They've already shipped in excess of 10 MMT of that total.