EU Wheat Mixed Friday, But Posts Impressive Weekly Gains

09/11/12 -- EU wheat closed mixed, with Nov 12 London wheat down GBP0.50/tonne to GBP220.75/tonne, May 13 up GBP0.50/tonne to GBP227.00/tonne and new crop Nov 13 down GBP0.55/tonne to GBP194.20/tonne.

For the week overall Nov 12 London wheat posted impressive gains of GBP8.75/tonne, with May 13 up GBP8.65/tonne and Nov 13 rising GBP5.70/tonne.

Nov 12 Paris wheat closed the day EUR2.25/tonne former at EUR280.50/tonne for a net gain of EUR11.25/tonne on the week.

The USDA cut the world wheat crop from 653 MMT to 651.4 MMT but also trimmed consumption by a bit more than that - down almost 3 MMT putting 2012/13 ending stocks 1.2 MMT higher than last month at 174.2 MMT. At the end of the day however, world wheat consumption is seen outstripping production by 24 MMT this season.

In amongst all their data was a reduction in their estimate for the UK wheat crop - down 0.5 MMT to 13.5 MMT. Production in France (38.24 MMT) and Germany (22.43 MMT) was also trimmed somewhat, although that was more than compensated for by a 0.75 MMT increase in Poland making the overall EU-27 wheat crop 0.35 MMT higher than stated last month at 131.82 MMT.

Production in China was left unchanged at 118 MMT, despite their attaché in Beijing estimating production this year at only 108.0 MMT earlier this week, although China's import requirement was raised 1 MMT to 2.5 MMT.

Argentina's wheat crop was left unchanged at 11.5 MMT, around 1.0-1.5 MMT above other trade estimates. The Rosario Grains Exchange said 12% of Argentina’s wheat crop has been harvested and estimated production there at only 10.12 MMT.

Australia's wheat crop was cut 2 MMT to 21 MMT, which is in line with the average trade guess although some are forecasting a sub-20 MMT crop Down Under this year.

In world wheat trade, Russia's exports were raised 1 MMT to 10 MMT, with Ukraine's upped 2 MMT to 6 MMT. Europe's exports are seen 1 MMT higher this month at 17.5 MMT, whilst India's were raised a similar amount to 7 MMT. Australia's export potential was cut 1.5 MMT to 19 MMT and America's trimmed 1 MMT to 30.5 MMT.

Other significant data saw Europe's corn crop cut 1 MMT to 54.65 MMT, whilst corn consumption here was raised 1.5 MMT to 63 MMT.

Now we have the USDA report out of the way the trade may start to refocus on European wheat planting progress, or rather the lack of it, next week as attention already turns to production potential for the 2013 harvest. There's already talk of much more spring barley getting planted next year as some growers abandon hope of ever getting their planned winter wheat in.

America and Russia also have issues with their poorly established wheat heading into winter dormancy, although lack of moisture rather than too much of it is their problem.