Nogger's Blog

14/11/12 -- Soycomplex: Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.32 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.19, up 11 cents; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD437.1, up USD0.50; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 47.67, up 65 points. Nov beans went off the board today. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 3,000 soybean contracts on the day. The USDA reported 120 TMT of beans sold to China for 2012/13 delivery along with 40 TMT of bean oil sold to unknown. As well as the very strong early pace of US soybean exports, backed up again by yesterday's weekly export inspections of 64 million bushels, the domestic US crush is showing no signs of rationing. The October NOPA crush came in at 153.5 million bushels, almost 34 million up on September and well above trade expectations of 144.4 million. The weather outlook in South America is improving. "Abundant rains across northern Brazil continue to significantly reduce dryness there, improving conditions for corn and soybean planting and germination," said MDA CropCast. Argentina has been drier this past couple of days too, although more rain is in forecast for the weekend and next week.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.25 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.29 1/4, up 3 cents. South Korea have been in the market buying optional origin corn. One company bought 139 TMT for Feb/Mar shipment with another taking 130,500 MT for Mar/May shipment. Ag Resource said that the EU-27 could import 10-12 MMT of corn in 2012/13, far higher than the USDA's 6.5 MMT estimate and an increase of 60-90% on last season. There is talk of the US Environmental Protection Agency nearing a decision on requests for the temporary removal of the ethanol mandate in response to this season's drought and subsequently reduced corn crop. Considering the spate of recent ethanol plant closures and the slump in US corn exports changes are thought to be unlikely. The normal Thursday weekly export sales report is delayed until Friday following Monday's Veteran's Day holiday. Corn sales need to average 422,000 MT/week to match USDA projections, amazingly it's been 29 weeks since they've beat that total. China are said to be shopping for corn for Q1 of 2013, what they can't get from South America may end up coming from Ukraine.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.48 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.89 3/4, up 2 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.23 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents. The market was supported by last night's news that the USDA had cut good/excellent ratings for US winter wheat from 39% last week to 36% as of Sunday. That's the worst figure since they began issuing weekly reports in the mid-1980's. Emergence has just about caught up at 79% versus 73% a week ago and 81% for the 5-year average. Ag Resource estimated the global wheat crop in 2012/13 at 649.30 MMT which is 2.1 MMT lower than the USDA and 6.7% down on last season. Exports continue to pour out of Ukraine where they shipped 929 TMT of grain between Nov 1-13 as sellers scramble to get grain out of the country before export restrictions are brought into force. The government's official stance on that issue is that there will be no need for quotas or bans, having earlier said that a ban on wheat exports would be introduced on Nov 15 and being subsequently rebuked by Egypt who have some Ukraine wheat bought for shipment in the second half of this month. A ban is widely expected by the trade come early December.