EU Wheat Rebounds
14/11/12 -- EU grains closed mostly firmer, consolidating from two days of losses with Nov 12 London wheat up GBP2.85/tonne to GBP217.00/tonne, May 13 up GBP1.65/tonne to GBP221.30/tonne and new crop Nov 13 GBP1.00/tonne steadier at GBP189.00/tonne.
Jan 13 Paris milling wheat added EUR270.25/tonne, making it around parity with Jan 13 London feed wheat. London wheat continues to outperform.
After a record early season export programme Ukraine said that its grain stocks are 22% down on last year at 23.1 MMT, including 8.2 MMT of wheat, 2.5 MMT of barley and 8.9 MMT of corn say the State Statistics Service.
The Russian The Ministry of Agriculture say that this year's grain harvest will total 74 MMT in bunker weight and 71 MMT in clean weight. There are small pockets of corn (13% of the planted area) and even wheat (1-2%) left to harvest, they added.
The Russian Grain Union estimated total 2012/13 grain exports at 14-15 MMT. The Interfax News Agency said that Russia has already exported 10.7 MMT of grains to Nov 7.
The Grain Union see November grain exports falling to around 1.5 MMT, then 1 MMT in December and 500-600 TMT each in January and February.
The recent little dip in wheat prices has flushed out some export interest. Syria bought 100 TMT of milling wheat of possibly Black Sea origin. Tunisia bought 75K optional origin durum wheat for Dec-Jan shipment. Jordan and Algeria are also tendering for wheat.
Looking ahead, French Analysts Strategie Grains said that despite an assortment of problems getting winter wheat planted across Europe that the 2013 EU-27 soft wheat crop could still come in at 136 MMT, an increase of more than 10% on this year.
Given the late sowings and lack of emergence in the UK and France in particular that currently looks pretty optimistic, although they do have a point when they highlight farmers' determination to press on and get a winter wheat crop into the ground given current buoyant prices for 2013.
