EU Wheat Mixed

29/11/12 – EU grains closed mixed with Jan 12 London wheat up GBP0.30/tonne to GBP225.45/tonne, with benchmark May 13 also GBP0.30/tonne higher at GBP229.00/tonne and new crop Nov 13 edging GBP0.05/tonne higher to GBP199.00/tonne. Jan 13 Paris wheat fell EUR2.25/tonne to EUR273.75/tonne.

On the week so far May 13 London wheat is up GBP9.00/tonne and new crop Nov 13 GBP9.65/tonne firmer compared to Jan 13 Paris wheat only rising EUR4.00/tonne as it becomes clearer that the UK is going to be more heavily reliant on imports this season, and possibly even next season too.

Ukraine increased their wheat export ceiling from 5.5 MMT to 5.8 MMT, seemingly to accommodate what has been shipped already (5.4 MMT) and what is loaded or waiting to load at the ports.

There's some talk that this limit may eventually be nudged a little higher yet, possibly to around 6.5 MMT, but as ever with Ukraine nothing is ever very clear with various government ministers regularly contradicting each other on a day to day basis.

Algeria's 50 TMT wheat tender turned into a purchase of 375 TMT of optional origin wheat for February shipment. France is thought to be the most likely supplier at the end of the day.

Conab estimated Brazil wheat crop at only 4.4 MMT this year, down by almost a quarter on 5.7 MMT a year ago. Domestic consumption there is pegged at 10-11 MMT a year, with 2012/13 wheat imports placed at 7 MMT, up 16.7% from a year ago. They are recently said to have bought one or two cargoes of German wheat.

Argentina continues to suffer from heavy rains, delaying corn/soybean plantings and undermining wheat quality there. This is possibly one reason why Brazil is having to look further afield to cover it's wheat deficit.

India are said to be gearing up to possibly release a further 3-4 MMT of it's surplus wheat stocks onto the world market, enthused by current prices.