The Morning Vibe

29/11/12 -- The overnight grains are a bit firmer, with beans up 6-8 cents, corn 2-3 cents higher and wheat a cent or so better.

The Ukraine government are said to have increased their wheat export ceiling from 5.5 MMT to 5.8 MMT. Not exactly a game changer that one then. They've already shipped 5.436 MMT and there's a further 360 TMT sat at ports waiting to load, so it would seem that all they've done is authorise that to leave to make room for some further corn exports.

Dryness in Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest soybean producing state, which has delayed bean planting there may also have the knock-on effect of reducing the so-called safrinha second crop corn area, according to state analysts IMEA. They peg safrinha corn production in the state at 13.3 MMT in 2012/13 versus 15.6 MMT in 2011/12.

Rabobank have released their grain price forecasts for 2013, and as ever they make interesting reading, with grains seen rallying to the highs of the year in the first quarter before declining into Q4.

Chicago wheat is seen rising to an average USD9.10/bu in Q1 but falling to USD7/bu by by the end of the year. Paris wheat ditto, from EUR290/tonne to close to EUR200/tonne. Corn is seen following a similar pattern, ending the year at USD6/bu. For soybeans they suggest USD14.75/bu in Q1 falling to USD13.00/bu in Q4.

Read more about Rabobank's crystal ball gazing here on

Also catching the eye this morning is a report in the Daily Wail saying that Britain is in for the coldest winter in 100 years with temperatures falling to -20C. Yes, I know, "they" say that every year - especially on a quiet news day. I suppose by the law of averages if they say it's going to be the coldest winter for 100 years every year for 100 years then they are going to call it right eventually.