Nogger's Blog

09/01/13 -- Soycomplex: Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.85 1/2, up 6 cents; Mar 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD409.60, down USD1.30; Mar 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.64, up 11 points. The USDA announced China had bought 120 TMT of optional origin beans for 2013/14 shipment. The Rosario Board of Trade forecasts Argentine soybean production at 53 MMT and exports at 10 MMT in 2012/13 - both are 2 MMT lower than the USDA. CONAB increased their Brazilian 2012/13 soybean production estimate slightly from 82.6 MMT to 82.7 MMT versus 81 MMT from the USDA. Bean exports were estimated at 36.4 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate and 1 MMT less than the USDA's December forecast. CNGOIC estimated the 2012 Chinese soybean crop at 12.8 MMT, down 11.63% from a year ago. Their rapeseed crop was estimated at 12.2 MMT, down 9.13% from a year ago. China imported 2.71 MMT of rapeseed in Jan/Nov 2012 - up over 150% on same period in 2011. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly US export sales report for beans are 200-400 TMT.

Corn: Mar 13 Corn closed at USD6.94 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents; May 13 Corn closed at USD6.93 3/4, up 5 cents. Brazil's CONAB estimated the 2012/13 corn crop at 72.19 MMT versus a previous estimate of 71.94 MMT. The USDA currently predict a Brazilian corn crop of 70.0 MMT this year but will issue a revised estimate on Friday. China's CNGOIC estimated the 2012 corn crop there at 208.13 MMT, up 7.96% from a year ago. South Korea is buying optional origin corn, although the chances are that will ultimately come from South America. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report from the USDA are only a modest 100-200 TMT for US corn. Not a very impressive number compared to the 469 TMT required to hit the current USDA export target of 31 MMT in 2012/13. That number could be revised down on Friday. The weekly US ethanol grind rebounded from last week's holiday influenced number to 826,000 barrels/day, which is in line with the volume required to match the USDA forecast for demand from that sector in 2012/13.

Wheat: Mar 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.45 1/2, down 5 cents; Mar 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.01 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents; Mar 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.40 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents. China are said to have bought several cargoes of high-protein wheat from the US and Canada over the past few days. Their own crop is said to be low in quality this year. India’s Director of Wheat Research said that their 2012/13 wheat crop could beat last year's record 93.9 MMT. Japan is shopping for four cargoes of Australian noodle-making wheat for delivery by the end of February. Despite saying last week that they had enough wheat reserves to last nearly six months, Egypt's GASC tendered for wheat for end-February delivery after the close. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for US wheat are 325-425 TMT. The US currently only has around 65% of the USDA's projected 29.5 MMT target for 2012/13 on the books at this stage. Many expect that estimate to be reduced on Friday.