EU Grains Mixed In Guarded Trade
09/01/13 -- EU grains were mixed with Jan 13 London wheat down GBP0.50/tonne to GBP205.90/tonne, May 13 up GBP0.15/tonne lower to GBP208.15/tonne and new crop Nov 13 falling GBP0.30/tonne to GBP183.25/tonne. Jan 13 Paris milling wheat was down EUR0.25/tonne to close at EUR254.50/tonne.
Trading remains guarded ahead of Friday's USDA report, FranceAgriMer pegged 2012 French soft wheat production at 35.815 MMT, virtually unchanged from last month and +5.4% on 2011. Exports within the EU-27 are seen at 7.135 MMT (-5.1% on last season) and exports outside the EU placed at 10.0 MMT (+17.4%). Ending stocks were revised up to 2.293 MMT from 1.961 MMT.
Corn production was estimated at 15.229 MMT, also almost identical to last month and 2.3% lower than in 2011. Exports are seen falling 7.6% on last year to 6.33 MMT and ending stocks are forecast to rise 13.7% to 2.767 MMT.
French barley output was pegged 29% up on 2011 to 11.363 MMT, with exports also rising sharply, up 24% to 5.335 MMT. Even so ending stocks will leap 81% to 1.737 MMT, they said.
China is said to have bought several cargoes of high-protein wheat from the US and Canada over the past few days as domestic prices hit record highs of over USD400/tonne in the top wheat producing province of Henan this week. Many are questioning the official winter wheat production estimate of 114.3 MMT in 2012. The quality of the Chinese crop is also in doubt.
US and Canadian wheat is well placed geographically to take advantage of any Chinese interest. Meanwhile Chinese think tank CNGOIC said earlier in the week that the coldest winter in 28 years was potentially damaging this year's crop also.
As well as buying much more wheat than normal, China is also importing ever larger quantities of rapeseed. They imported 2.71 MMT of rapeseed in the Jan/Nov 2012 period - up more than 150% compared to the same period in 2011.
Nearby EU rapeseed prices meanwhile, up EUR5.00/tonne tonight, have leapt by more than EUR20/tonne in the past week on technical tightness.
The Ukraine Ministry said that the country will harvest 50 MMT of grains this year versus 46.0 MMT in 2012. Winter crops has been planted on 8.1 million hectares, of which 6.7 million is wheat. The total grain area included spring plantings will rise 670,000 ha to 16.2 million ha in 2013, they added.
Ukragroconsult estimated Ukraine's 2013 wheat crop at 21.0 MMT versus the 2012 crop of 14.18 MMT. This year's corn crop is estimated at 20.0 MMT vs. 18.8 MMT last year, and the 2013 barley crop pegged at 8.0 MMT vs. 6.34 MMT in 2012.
