Chicago Mixed As Market Digests Planting Progress Report
04/06/13 -- Soycomplex: Last night's crop report showed 57% of the crop was planted, in line with market estimates and up from 44% last week. The crop was 93% planted at this point last year. The 5-year average for this time of year is 74% and the 10-year average is 79%. The unplanted area is the equivalent of around 33 million acres. Michael Cordonnier estimated the 2013 US soybean crop at 3.34 billion bushels with yields coming in at an average 43.5 bu/acre. The USDA say 3.39 billion and 44.5 bu/acre respectively. Despite a bushel/acre lower yield the production estimate was almost identical to the USDA's thanks to an estimated area of 77.87 million acres versus the USDA figure of 77.1 million. Cordonner also forecast the 2013 Brazilian bean crop at 81.5 MMT, and the 2013 Argentine crop at 50.0 MMT, both unchanged from his previous estimates. Brazil’s Trade Ministry said Brazil exported 1.52 MMT of meal in May versus 1.50 MMT in April and 1.35 MMT in May 2012. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.28 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.16, down 9 1/2 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD452.50, down USD1.90; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 48.59, down 7 points.
Corn: The weekly crop progress report showed US corn planting advancing from 86% to 91% complete, versus an average trade guess of 92% and 95% a year go. The unplanted area is the equivalent of around 8.75 million acres. Michael Cordonnier said that 1.5-3.0 million acres of corn will remain unseeded, and around half of that will go into soybeans. He estimated the 2013 US corn area at 95.78 million acres versus the USDA estimate of 97.3 million. He estimated this year's US corn yield at 153.0 bu/acre, down from his previous estimate of 155.0 bu/acre and 5 bu/acre lower than the USDA's May forecast. He estimated the 2013 US corn crop at 13.47 billion bushels, still a record but lower than the USDA's suggested 14.1 billion. He also forecast the 2013 Brazilian corn crop at 76.0 MMT, and the 2013 Argentine corn crop at 24.0 MMT, both unchanged from his previous estimates. China’s COFCO bought 60 TMT of Argentine corn for July shipment, the first such purchase since they signed a trade agreement on corn more than a year ago. South Korea bought 50 TMT of South African corn at USD300/tonne C&F for September shipment. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.60 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.53, down 7 cents.
Wheat: The USDA said last night that US spring wheat planting was up just one point from last week to 80% done, and versus the 5-year average of 92%. Winter wheat crop conditions had 32% of the crop rated good/excellent compared to 31% last week and 52% last year. Japan are tendering for 163,605 MT of milling wheat for July/Sept shipment, they are excluding US SRW wheat and say that local millers have sufficient stocks of that to last some time until the GMO problem is resolved. Failing which they will presumably look elsewhere. A Reuters poll put Russian wheat exports in 2013/14 at 16 MMT, some 2 MMT lower than the USDA estimate but 50% up on this season. They also estimated Ukraine's wheat exports at 8.5 MMT (versus 7.0 MMT this season) and Kazakhstan's at 7.5 MMT (vs. 6.5 MMT). Another report on Reuters said that France has received a formal request from Egypt for help with wheat imports. Deferred payment and assistance with grain storage are said to be on the agenda. France are said to be considering the request. Some reports suggest that India's wheat exports could fall to around 1.5-2.0 MMT in 2013/14 as local farmers hold back on sales to the government hoping for higher prices. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.09, up 1/4 cent; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.50 3/4, down 3/4 cent; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.21, down 2 cents.
