Nogger's Blog

05/06/13 -- The overnight Globex grains are mixed. Wheat trades flat to 2-3 cents easier, old crop corn is a cent higher and new crop 4-5 cents weaker, soybeans are 3 cents higher to 3 cents lower.

The dollar is weak in ideas that a tightening of US fiscal policy may not be too far away. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee starts its two-day meeting today, last month's vote was split 6-3 against increasing QE.

A survey by a US analysis group, Roach Ag Marketing, apparently estimated that 3.7 million acres of US corn will go unplanted this year. That would bring plantings down to 93.6 million, close to Morgan Stanley's recent estimate of 93.5 million. The latter still projected record US corn production this year however.

Michael Cordonnier yesterday said that 1.5-3.0 million acres of corn might not get planted in the US this year, and that around half of that would go into soybeans. If Roach are correct then that potentially means an extra 1.85 million acres of soybeans in the US this year, taking the planted area up to just under 79 million acres.

The USDA already predict a record US soybean crop this year, and they may be using an acreage figure almost 2 million too low then it would seem.

Egypt have asked France to cut them some slack on wheat sales. Well, a lot of slack actually.

As I understand it what was formerly the world's largest wheat buyer would like is "assistance in building grain silos in Egypt" - I assume this "assistance" means we provide the land, you pay for everything. Possession is 9/10ths of the law they say, and that's not even in Egyptian law. I'm sure France can have their investment money back if they ask for it nicely though.

Point two seems to be "you store wheat that we've bought in France for up to six months for nothing and bring it to us when we ask for it" - stick a broom up my French arse and I'll sweep the floor for you then.

Point three is "we pay for it 9-12 months after we've had it" - insert the word "possibly" in there. This is all starting to sound a wee bit one-sided isn't it? Still, this is the French we are dealing with, so they might just go for it.

It wasn't that long ago that Egypt virtually barred French wheat from coming in by insisting on minimum 60 TMT cargoes with only one port of loading as you may recall.

Egypt accounted for only 3% of French soft wheat exports in 2011/12 after this new rule was introduced, and now all of sudden they want to be mates again. I know what my response to their request would be.

APK Inform say that Ukraine's 2013 grains/pulse area will be a record 16 million ha, including 6.8 million of wheat. That's 0.2 million more than the USDA currently predict. The Ukraine analysts say that the corn area this year will be 4.7 million ha (the same as the USDA) and that barley plantings will be 3.3 million (versus 3.2 million from the USDA).

South Korea say that they've found no trace yet of GMO wheat in imports from the US.

Russia's Deputy Ag Minister forecasts grain exports in 2012/13 at 15.4-15.5 MMT, rising to 18-20 MMT in 2013/14.

Hot and dry weather in May sees maturity of the rapeseed crop in eastern Europe 8-10 days ahead of normal. Harvesting in Bulgaria, Moldova and southern regions of Romania and Ukraine is expected to begin within a fortnight. Old crop carryover stocks in Bulgaria are already said to be running at an all time high.

At home an estimated 140,000 ha of spring barley was drilled in May, almost four times the normal area drilled late, say the HGCA/ADAS.